NAVIGATE COMPLEXITY

A project is a system of elements that interact with each other. Complexity is a characteristic of a project or its environment that is difficult to manage due to human behavior, system behavior, and ambiguity. The nature and number of the interactions determine the degree of complexity in a project. Complexity emerges from project elements, interactions between project elements, and interactions with other systems and the project environment. Though complexity cannot be controlled, project teams can modify their activities to address impacts that occur as a result of complexity.

Project teams often cannot foresee complexity emerging because it is the result of many interactions such as risks, dependencies, events, or relationships. Alternatively, a few causes may converge to produce a single complex effect, which makes isolating a specific cause of complexity difficult.

Project complexity occurs as the result of individual elements within the project and project system as a whole. For example, complexity within a project may be amplified with a greater number or diversity of stakeholders, such as regulatory agencies, international financial institutions, multiple vendors, numerous specialty subcontractors, or local communities. These stakeholders can have a significant impact on the complexity of a project, both individually and collectively.

Some of the more common sources of complexity are:

• Human behavior. Human behavior is the interplay of conduct, demeanors, attitudes, and experience of people. Human behavior can also contribute to complexity by introducing elements of subjectivity such as personal agendas that conflict with the project’s goals and objectives. Stakeholders located in remote locations may have different time zones, speak different languages, and have different cultural norms.
• System behavior. System behavior is the result of dynamic interdependencies within and among project elements. For example, the integration of different technology systems may cause threats that could impact project outcomes and success. The interactions among components of the project system may lead to interconnected risk, create emerging or unforeseeable issues, and produce unclear and disproportional cause-and-effect relationships.
• Uncertainty and ambiguity. Ambiguity is a state of being unclear, of not knowing what to expect or how to comprehend a situation. Ambiguity can arise from having many options or a lack of clarity on the optimal choice. Unclear or misleading events, emerging issues, or subjective situations can also lead to ambiguity.Uncertainty is the lack of understanding and awareness of issues, events, paths to follow, or solutions to pursue. Uncertainty deals with the probabilities of alternative actions, reactions, and outcomes. Uncertainty includes unknown unknowns and black swans, which are emerging factors that are completely outside of existing knowledge or experience.Within a complex environment, uncertainty and ambiguity can combine to blur causal relationships to the point where probabilities and impacts are ill defined. It becomes difficult to reduce uncertainty and ambiguity to the point where relationships can be well defined and therefore addressed effectively.
• Technological innovation. Technological innovation can cause disruption to products, services, ways of working, processes, tools, techniques, procedures, and more. The introduction of desktop computing and social media are examples of technological innovations that have fundamentally changed the way project work is performed. New technology, along with the uncertainty of how that technology will be used, contributes to complexity. Innovation has the potential to help move projects toward a solution, or to disrupt the project when associated uncertainties are not defined, leading to increased complexity.

Complexity may emerge and impact the project in any area and at any point in the project life cycle. Project teams can identify elements of complexity throughout the project by continually looking at the project component as well as the project as a whole for signs of complexity. Knowledge of systems thinking, complex adaptive systems, experience from past project work, experimentation, and continuous learning related to system interaction leads to the project team’s increased ability to navigate complexity when it emerges. Being vigilant for indications of complexity allows project teams to adapt their approaches and plans to navigate potential disruption to effective project delivery.