On-going advances in materials technology are essential to the success of the aerospace industry in the design, construction and in-service operation of aircraft. The aerospace industry is broadly defined as an industry network that designs, builds and provides in-service support to aircraft, helicopters, guided missiles, space vehicles, aircraft engines, and related parts. The industry includes small to medium-sized enterprises that design, manufacture or service specific aerospace items for large global companies such as Boeing, EADS and Lockheed-Martin who design, assemble, sell and provide in-service support to the entire aircraft system.
Improvements in materials, whether by making them cheaper, lighter, stronger, tougher or more durable, have been crucial to the development of better and safer aircraft. It is worthwhile examining the current state and future growth of the aerospace industry to understand the need for on-going advances in aerospace materials. The global aerospace industry in 2008 had an annual turnover of about $275 billion. This makes aerospace one of the most valuable industries in the world. The largest national players are the USA (which has about 50% of the market), European Union, Japan, Canada and, increasingly, China. The aerospace industry employs world-wide about 1.5 million people, with many engaged in highly skilled professions. The aerospace industry is not only important because of the economic wealth and employment it generates, but also from the generation of knowledge. Globally, aerospace drives innovation and skills in the engineering and information technology sectors which are then used by other (non-aerospace) industries. This includes the development of new materials and their manufacturing processes.
Figure 2.13 shows the approximate value of the different market segments in the aerospace industry. About 50% (or ~$140 billion) of the annual turnover is derived from the manufacture and sales of aircraft, of which the greatest share (23%) is from large commercial airliner sales. In comparison, military aircraft (7%), business jets (6%) and helicopters (4%) account for a relatively small, but still valuable, share of the market. The other 50% of industry turnover is related to the in-service support and maintenance of aircraft.
2.13 Global aerospace industry by market segment.
Aerospace is not a stable, constant and predictable industry; but is a volatile industry subject to fluctuations in the growth and recession of the global economy. Not surprisingly, the growth of the aerospace industry closely tracks the demand for air travel, which over the past thirty years has grown at an average rate of 8%. Figure 2.14 shows the number of new large commercial aircraft sales in the period between the mid-1970s and mid-2000s. The number of aircraft sales grew during prolonged periods of global economic growth and dropped during economic recessions or major terrorist attacks that affected public confidence in aviation safety. This trend is expected to continue, with faster growth occurring during periods of economic prosperity and slower (or negative) growth during recessions and when the public lacks confidence in aviation safety.
2.14 New deliveries of large commercial aircraft between 1974 and 2004.
Despite the fluctuations in new aircraft sales, the major aerospace companies predict an era of sustained growth. Several key statistics illustrate the projected growth in civil aviation between 2004 and 2024:
• The world-wide fleet of large passenger aircraft is expected to more than double by 2024, growing to over 35 000. About 57% of the fleet operating today (9600 airliners) is forecast to still be in operation in 2024 and the remainder (7200 airliners) to be retired. An additional 18 500 aircraft are needed to fill the capacity demand.
• The total market demand is for almost 26 000 new passenger and freight aircraft worth about $2.3 trillion at current price list.
• New aircraft deliveries between 2004 and 2025 are forecast to include about 11 000 single-aisle and small jet freighters, 2000 small twin-aisle and regional freighters, and over 1600 large twin-aisle aircraft.
• The number of new freighter aircraft sales per year is forecast to double from 1760 (in 2004) to about 3500 (in 2024).
• Passenger traffic is forecast to grow at an average of 4.8% per year, resulting in a three-fold growth between 2004 and 2023. Airfreight is forecast to grow even faster, with freight tonnes kilometres increasing at an average of 6.2% per year.
In addition to a growing number of new aircraft, the age of existing aircraft has risen considerably over the past decade and is likely to continue rising. The average age of military aircraft is also increasing, as shown in Fig. 2.15.
2.15 Trends in design life for US military aircraft.
Growth of the aviation industry must be supported by the construction of new aircraft and the life extension of existing aircraft. The materials used in new aircraft have a major economic impact on the profitability of manufacturers and airline companies. Similarly, the materials used in existing aircraft have a large influence on the airframe life and maintenance costs. The future of the aerospace industry is reliant on advances in materials technology. Development of new materials and research into the life extension and durability of existing materials is essential for the on-going success of the industry.
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