The newsvendor problem with normal demand

We know from Section 7.4.4 that the optimal solution of a newsvendor problem with continuous demand is the solution of the equation

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i.e., the quantile of demand distribution, corresponding to probability m/(m+cμ). If we assume normal demand, with expected value μ and standard deviation σ, then the optimal order quantity (assuming that we want to maximize expected profit) is

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Assume that items are purchased from a supplier for $10 per item and then are sold at $15, and that the salvage value of unsold items is $3. The expected value of demand over the sales window is 10,000 items, and its standard deviation is 2000 items. Then we find

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Note that service level is lower than 50%, so the corresponding quantile from the standard normal distribution is negative, and we should buy less than expected demand. Indeed, statistical software yields

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Note that, since the profit margin is low with respect to the cost of unsold items, we should be conservative; the larger the risk, measured by standard deviation, the less we buy.


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