The components AIC, AICc and BIC are the estimators of best fit model of ARIMA. These coefficients are supported to maximize the log likelihood value of ARIMA model. Rainfall data provide best fit along with (0, 1, 1) × (1, 0, 0) model and its coefficients are smaller than the other ARIMA models (Table 2.4).
| ARIMA model (p,d,q) × (P,Q,D) | AIC | AICc | BIC |
|---|---|---|---|
| (0,1,0) × (1,0,0) | 1462.92 | 1474.48 | 1474.25 |
| (0,1,1) × (1,0,0) | 1394.94 | 1394.84 | 1384.96 |
| (0,1,2) × (1,0,0) | 1474.22 | 1488.12 | 1474.39 |
| (1,1,0) × (1,0,0) | 1474.25 | 1474.42 | 1488.36 |
| (1,1,1) × (1,0,0) | 1462.25 | 1464.76 | 1473.25 |
Residual graph is shown in Figure 2.13 for the fitted ARIMA model on rainfall data.
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